客观的分析03年疫情以后房价上涨，多个方面：
1、中国那时候刚加入世贸组织不久，经济处于高速增长期，相应的那个时间段的GDP，M1 M2 等经济指标都处于高速增长的阶段。
2、03年那个时候中国的楼市刚好处于起步不久的阶段，整个房地产在经济中占比不大，有很大的上涨空间。
3、03年疫情以后政府出台了经济刺激计划，直接推动了当时体量并不大的房地产。
反观这次疫情，其影响的广度和深度都比03年非典大，对于房地产的冲击不言而喻，而楼主提到疫情以后又会报复性上涨的可能性，我觉得根本没有，也是几个方面分析：
1、现在的房地产体量已经远远不是03年那时候能比的了，现在的房地产总量在GDP中的占比已经非常高了，如果继续上涨，就需要海量的货币支撑，钱怎么来？
2、居民杠杆率，03年的居民杠杆率很低，居民存款率很高，反观现在，在经历了前两年楼市暴涨以后，全民买房导致居民杠杆率很高，这次疫情的影响会导致居民更加缺钱，总结:老百姓没钱了。
3、这几年楼市暴涨导致居民大量可支配被锁死，居民杠杆率大幅攀升，其实带来的负面影响已经出现了，居民因为可支配收入减少，另外还要支付银行的月供，消费能力已经降低了很多了，所以这几年实体经济越来越困难，如果继续推高房价，会导致更多的居民存款和银行的杠杆资金被锁死，后果是老百姓更加缺钱，导致消费更加萧条，恶性循环，现在的实体已经到了危难的关头，保根基？还是推房价？这并不是选择题。
Objective analysis of the housing price rise after the 2003 epidemic, in many aspects:
1. Just after China's accession to the WTO at that time, its economy was in a period of high-speed growth, and its GDP, M1 m2 and other economic indicators were in a period of high-speed growth.
2. At that time in 2003, China's real estate market was just in its infancy. The whole real estate accounted for a small proportion in the economy, and there was a lot of room for growth.
3. After the outbreak of 2003, the government issued an economic stimulus plan, which directly promoted the small real estate at that time.
In contrast, the scope and depth of the impact of this epidemic is greater than that of SARS in 2003, and the impact on real estate is self-evident. The landlord mentioned the possibility of retaliatory increase after the epidemic, which I don't think is at all, but also analyzed in several aspects:
1. The curren real estate volume is far from comparable in 2003. The total real estate volume now accounts for a very high proportion of GDP. If it continues to rise, it will need massive monetary support. How can money come from?
2. In 2003, the leverage rate of residents was very low, and the deposit rate of residents was very high. Now, after two years of property market boom, people buy houses, which leads to high leverage rate of residents. The impact of this epidemic will lead to more lack of money for residents. Conclusion: people have no money.
3. In recent years, the rapid rise of the real estate market has resulted in a large number of residents being locked up at their disposal, and the leverage ratio of residents has increased significantly. In fact, the negative impact has already occurred. Because of the decrease of disposable income, residents have to pay for the monthly supply of banks, and the consumption capacity has decreased a lot, so the real economy has become more and more difficult in recent years. If the housing price continues to rise, more residents will be saved The result is that people are even more short of money, leading to a more depressed consumption and vicious circle. Now the entity has reached a critical juncture, baogenji? Or pushing house prices? This is not a multiple choice question.
